During the summer, as Elon Musk increased his backing for Donald Trump’s election campaign, the former president appeared to promise something significant to the world’s richest man. At a rally in late July, Trump said, "We have to make life good for our smart people — and he’s as smart as you get," referring to Musk.
Musk has a few specific goals in mind, including pushing the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to speed up its approval process for space launch licenses. He argues that delays in obtaining these licenses are slowing down SpaceX’s progress on its Starship rocket, a key project. Additionally, SpaceX has faced challenges with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) over the environmental impact of Starship launches in a wildlife-rich area on the Gulf Coast of Texas.
If Trump returns to the White House, he could make substantial changes. As president, he would appoint new political leadership to both the FAA and the EPA, potentially easing regulatory hurdles for SpaceX. Moreover, Trump’s broader policy could roll back strict space industry regulations, benefiting SpaceX more than any other company, according to Chris Quilty, founder of the space-focused financial services firm Quilty Space. "Even if you're pro-Trump and you're in the space industry, you're thinking, 'Crap, SpaceX is already dominating. Do they need more of an advantage?’" Quilty noted.
This dynamic has led the space industry to look at Trump's potential return with mixed feelings — some hopeful, others concerned.
Trump’s Pro-Space Record
Trump’s first term saw a strong pro-space stance, one that Chris Quilty believes could be remembered as “the most impactful presidential space effort since JFK.” Along with Vice President Mike Pence, a longtime space advocate, Trump helped establish the Space Force as an independent military branch. His administration pushed for increased NASA funding, launched the Artemis program to return Americans to the moon, and forged international agreements on the exploration and mining of the moon, Mars, and asteroids.
If Trump returns to office, many believe his focus on competing with China could significantly boost funding for both military and civilian space initiatives. From protecting U.S. satellites from Chinese anti-satellite weapons to staying competitive in lunar exploration, Trump’s second term could ramp up space efforts. Furthermore, if Musk has his way, the U.S. government might shift its focus toward Musk’s long-term goal: reaching Mars. In a September rally, Trump remarked, "Elon, get those rocket ships going because we want to reach Mars before the end of my term."
A Cost-Saving Opportunity for NASA and SpaceX
One of the key ways Trump could benefit SpaceX is by helping NASA make significant cost-saving decisions. Currently, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) — the massive government-owned rocket planned for the Artemis missions — has been under fire for its cost overruns. NASA’s own inspector general has estimated that a single SLS launch costs $4 billion, nearly a sixth of NASA’s annual budget. Meanwhile, Musk claims that Starship could do the same job for a fraction of the price — under $10 million per launch.
While Musk’s Starship is already playing a role in the Artemis program, where it is being developed as a lunar lander, pushing NASA to replace the SLS with Starship could be a difficult battle. The SLS is widely known as the “Senate Launch System” because of the jobs it supports across the U.S., especially in swing states. Even with Trump’s influence, getting Congress to kill the SLS would be a tough sell.
A more realistic scenario could be to start transitioning to a commercially developed vehicle after the first few Artemis missions, says Todd Harrison, a space and defense policy expert. This could allow SpaceX to compete with other commercial vehicles, such as the New Glenn rocket being developed by Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.
SpaceX and the FCC: A Potential Trump Boost
Musk’s SpaceX could also benefit from Trump’s influence over the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), especially in regard to the company’s Starlink satellite network. SpaceX currently has a “deluge” of requests with the FCC to expand Starlink’s satellite network, including requests to increase its transmission power, lower the altitude of satellites, and grow the constellation itself. A shift to a Republican majority at the FCC could accelerate these efforts.
In addition to supporting NASA, Trump may seek to expand the U.S. Space Force, which currently has a $29 billion budget and is the smallest of the U.S. military branches. In August, Trump proposed creating a Space National Guard, an idea opposed by the Pentagon due to its cost. However, the budget implications of Trump’s proposed tax cuts and spending reductions make the future of the Space Force uncertain. Some analysts believe that a GOP-controlled House, led by budget-focused members of the Freedom Caucus, could lead to constraints on military spending, possibly limiting Space Force’s funding.
The Future of Space Privatization Under Trump
Despite potential challenges, many experts believe the Trump administration could push for greater privatization of space operations, particularly in response to competition from China. This would likely benefit private companies like SpaceX, which are already leading in commercial space ventures.
Jeffrey Manber, a space industry veteran, believes that the U.S. government is likely to turn to private companies for Earth observation, satellite communications, and space station projects. Such initiatives could rejuvenate U.S. space companies, which have struggled with profitability despite great technological advancements.
Still, there are concerns about the reliability of U.S.-based companies like SpaceX, especially after Musk’s decision to limit Ukraine’s use of Starlink in military operations during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These concerns could encourage other nations to accelerate their own space ambitions.
Conclusion: Trump’s Potential Impact on SpaceX and the U.S. Space Industry
Ultimately, if Trump returns to the White House, his administration could profoundly impact the future of space exploration and commercialization. SpaceX is likely to benefit from deregulation, government contracts, and potential policy shifts that favor private industry. However, the industry remains divided on whether such changes will help or hinder long-term goals — such as sustainable human presence on the moon and Mars — which may require a more balanced approach between government and private enterprise.
With so much at stake, the return of Trump to the presidency could shape the future of the U.S. space program and companies like SpaceX, possibly giving them a stronger foothold in the rapidly growing global space race.