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Ukraine Missile Strikes

How Strikes on Russian Targets with Long-Range Missiles Could Change the War in Ukraine

Published: November 19, 2024

For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the United States for permission to use long-range missiles, such as the ATACMS, to target sites deep inside Russia. Now, it seems his request has been approved. U.S. officials have confirmed that President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use American-made ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory.

This shift in U.S. policy comes after months of hesitation, with Washington initially refusing to allow such strikes due to concerns that it might escalate the war. But recent developments, including the arrival of North Korean troops in Russian-held areas and fears over the future of U.S. support for Ukraine, appear to have led to this change. With only a couple of months remaining in office before the U.S. presidential election, Biden may want to strengthen Ukraine's position ahead of any potential peace talks.

Why Did the U.S. Change Its Position?

Until now, Ukraine has been using ATACMS missiles to target Russian military positions in occupied Ukrainian areas. However, the U.S. had held back from allowing strikes inside Russia. Ukrainian officials argued that denying them the ability to hit targets within Russia was a significant disadvantage, as it limited their ability to fully defend themselves.

The shift in U.S. policy may have been influenced by the presence of North Korean forces in the Kursk region, an area of Ukraine currently under Russian control. Ukraine has been holding territory in Kursk since August, and Ukrainian forces expect a counter-offensive to retake it. Ukrainian officials may now use ATACMS to defend the area, aiming at Russian military bases, supply lines, and ammunition depots.

What Are ATACMS Missiles?

The ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) is a powerful long-range weapon capable of striking targets up to 300 km (186 miles) away. These missiles are launched from either the M270 or HIMARS rocket systems, which are already in use by Ukraine. ATACMS missiles are difficult to intercept because they follow a high-speed, high-trajectory path. They can carry either a cluster warhead, designed to hit multiple targets over a large area, or a single high-explosive warhead aimed at more fortified structures.

The U.S. is no longer producing ATACMS but is replacing them with a newer missile, the Precision Strike Missile, which has a range of 500 km. However, Ukraine is unlikely to receive these next-generation missiles.

What Impact Will These Missiles Have on the Battlefield?

By gaining access to ATACMS, Ukraine will be able to strike deeper into Russian territory, potentially targeting military infrastructure, air defense systems, and critical supply routes. Initially, the missiles will likely be used to defend Ukrainian-held areas like Kursk from a Russian counter-offensive. While these missiles won't be enough to decisively turn the tide of the war, they could complicate Russia's military operations, especially if Russian troops are forced to stretch their supply lines or relocate equipment to avoid missile strikes.

Additionally, the missile strikes may have a psychological impact, boosting morale in Ukraine and putting pressure on Russian forces. Attacks on symbols of Russian power, like the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to mainland Russia, could serve as significant propaganda tools.

However, concerns remain about the number of ATACMS missiles available. The U.S. military has limited stockpiles, and it is unclear how many missiles will be provided to Ukraine.

Could This Lead to an Escalation of the War?

One of the key concerns behind the U.S. hesitance to approve these strikes was the risk of escalating the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that if NATO weapons are used against Russian targets, it would change the nature of the conflict. In his view, it would amount to direct involvement by the U.S. and its allies in the war.

Despite such warnings, Western officials argue that the previous restrictions on Ukrainian self-defense were arbitrary. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker, has said that limiting Ukraine's ability to defend itself with American weapons was a mistake.

However, by publicly announcing the decision, the U.S. may have given Russia advance warning of the strikes, allowing them to adjust their military strategy accordingly.

What Will Donald Trump’s Position Be?

This decision comes at a sensitive time, just months before the U.S. presidential election. If Donald Trump returns to the White House, there are concerns in Ukraine that he could reverse the decision to provide long-range missiles. Trump has already stated that he would work to end the war quickly, though he has not specified how. Many of his supporters, including those in his inner circle, are critical of continued military aid to Ukraine.

If Trump decides to stop supplying Ukraine with ATACMS or other military support, it could significantly alter the course of the war. Ukrainian officials have expressed worry about this possibility, hoping that U.S. support will continue regardless of who is in office.

Conclusion

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russia marks a significant shift in policy and could have important consequences for the war. While the missiles may not change the overall balance of power, they give Ukraine a new tool to defend itself and raise the cost of the war for Russia. However, the future of U.S. support for Ukraine remains uncertain, with the potential for a change in direction depending on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election.

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